Market Outlook - February 2026

The geopolitical scene in the US has been uncertain and volatile. The January jobs report exceeded expectations, though employment gains were largely concentrated in the healthcare sector. Kevin Warsh, known for his hawkish stance, has been nominated as the next Federal Reserve Chair, though this remains to be confirmed by the Senate. In the past week, the Supreme Court has ruled against President Trump’s International Emergency Economic Powers Act (“IEEPA”) tariffs. In return, the Trump administration acted quickly to impose 10% global tariffs, and immediately raised to 15% that will remain effective for 150 days under a separate trade law. These developments have contributed to a weakening US dollar, which is further exacerbated by rising US-Iran military tensions. Gold extended its rally and reached new highs, while silver surrendered most of its gains. Investors remain cautious amid sharp swings in these traditional safe haven assets.

In Asia, market performance has been mixed. Indonesia experienced its largest stock crash since 1998, whereas South Korea and Taiwan delivered strong returns. Markets have shown heightened sensitivity to the external macro environment, resulting in intermittent pullbacks. Most recently, Chinese stocks rose as IEEPA tariffs were removed as China is set to face lower duties on shipments to the US. The Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng indexes also experienced recent declines, as is expected due to thin trading volumes during the Lunar New Year holiday season. Overall sentiment towards Asian equity markets amid the uncertain global political climate remains positive.

Against this backdrop, we continue to diversify across different markets and sectors while remaining selective to stock selection, particularly within the technology sector. We continue to maintain a disciplined, bottom-up approach in portfolio construction.