Market Outlook - February 2026

The geopolitical scene in the US has been uncertain and volatile. The January jobs report exceeded expectations, though employment gains were largely concentrated in the healthcare sector. Kevin Warsh, known for his hawkish stance, has been nominated as the next Federal Reserve Chair, though this remains to be confirmed by the Senate. In the past week, the Supreme Court has ruled against President Trump’s International Emergency Economic Powers Act (“IEEPA”) tariffs. In return, the Trump administration acted quickly to impose 10% global tariffs, and immediately raised to 15% that will remain effective for 150 days under a separate trade law. These developments have contributed to a weakening US dollar, which is further exacerbated by rising US-Iran military tensions. Gold extended its rally and reached new highs, while silver surrendered most of its gains. Investors remain cautious amid sharp swings in these traditional safe haven assets.

In Asia, market performance has been mixed. Indonesia experienced its largest stock crash since 1998, whereas South Korea and Taiwan delivered strong returns. Markets have shown heightened sensitivity to the external macro environment, resulting in intermittent pullbacks. Most recently, Chinese stocks rose as IEEPA tariffs were removed as China is set to face lower duties on shipments to the US. The Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng indexes also experienced recent declines, as is expected due to thin trading volumes during the Lunar New Year holiday season. Overall sentiment towards Asian equity markets amid the uncertain global political climate remains positive.

Against this backdrop, we continue to diversify across different markets and sectors while remaining selective to stock selection, particularly within the technology sector. We continue to maintain a disciplined, bottom-up approach in portfolio construction.

Market Outlook - January 2026

The New Year began with subdued volatility, but the calm was subsequently shattered by geopolitical events, notably US’s desire to take over Greenland for its strategic Arctic Circle argument. Demand for gold and silver skyrocketed with prices hitting new fresh highs. However, these high precious metal prices can create a range of challenges for precious metal-dependent industries like solar panel makers and EV producers which use silver as part of their components in their production. This may further impact the profitability of the solar panel makers which are already facing an oversupply situation.

Asian markets started the year mixed but with some positive moves. Several key themes are driving the markets, central amongst them is a strong Asian IPO pipeline especially in Hong Kong and India. Other country-specific themes that are driving the markets include the deployment of funds from the Equity Market Development Programme in Singapore. The Korean KOSPI has exceeded their President’s target, with technology companies fuelling the rally on accelerated semiconductor demand. China surprised with an export outperformance with a record 2025 trade surplus, plus resurgent interests in AI-related tech names. While in Japan, performance is mixed where there are concerns with the volatility and soaring yields in the Japanese Government Bonds market.

In 2025, US technology stocks dominated investor attention for much of the year, later turning to precious metals commodities. This period also underscored the importance of diversification and currency exposure beyond the US. With growth now amplifying across global markets, moderate softening of the US dollar may act as a drag on returns from US assets. Against this backdrop, we retain our emphasis on broadening exposure to other markets and sectors while being mindful of our stock selection, particularly in the technology sector. We continue to maintain a disciplined, bottom-up fundamental approach in portfolio construction.

Market Outlook - December 2025

The hawkish rate cut signalled the Fed’s caution, even as tariff-related inflation pressures appeared to be fading. November’s jobs report suggested a subdued consumer environment. Unemployment had risen to its highest level since 2021, and retail sales remained unchanged despite Black Friday sales. Though the Trump administration has softened its language on China, recent developments highlight the delicate truce in their trade war. The U.S. has restricted China’s access to technology, such as permitting limited Nvidia chip exports, and formed an international partnership to counter China’s rare earth dominance.

Across Asia, the picture remains mixed. The weaker U.S. dollar alleviates pressure on currency weakness in countries like Indonesia, South Korea, India, and the Philippines. The Bank of Japan have responded to the Fed’s rate cut by raising interest rates by a quarter point in a widely expected decision. In China, the economy continues to be supported by sustained capital inflows and the boom in exports while pivoting away from dependence on U.S. consumers. This was in spite of the property sector slump, missed industrial production expectations, weak retail sales, and unchanging unemployment rates. Measures to drive consumption appear ineffective, and rising trade frictions with countries beyond the U.S are weighing on sentiment.

Investors are increasingly watchful for signs of an AI-driven bubble, including circular financing risks inflating valuations, where such dynamics could unwind abruptly. Against this backdrop, investors face a strategic dilemma - rein in AI exposure ahead of a potential bubble popping, or double down to capitalise on game-changing technology breakthroughs. In response, we are positioning portfolios defensively and broadening exposure to other sectors. This includes increasing allocations to commodities such as silver and gold, which can serve as stores of value, and consumer staples, that tends to offer more resilient demand. We continue to maintain a disciplined, bottom-up fundamental approach in portfolio construction.

Market Outlook - November 2025

Mega-cap chip making company Nvidia Corp (“Nvidia”) became the first company to hit $5 trillion market capitalisation, likely due to U.S. President Trump’s comments ahead of the trade talk with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the end of October. The talk resulted in a consensus on cooperation in expanding agricultural trade and pausing the rare-earths licensing regime for a year. Mid-November saw the conclusion of the record U.S. government shutdown, which lasted 43 days, and put an end to unpaid furlough and other government operations. Consequently, the October jobs report was cancelled due to insufficient data. The ambiguity around unemployment rates raised uncertainty about the state of the U.S. economy. Compounding concerns were exacerbated by growing anxieties about stretched valuations of an “AI bubble”, which led to a selloff towards the end of November.

Similarly, the Asian equity market, primarily due to technology companies in the AI landscape, slumped after an initial rally in the previous month’s end. In the semiconductor space, South Korean company Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. reported an 80% surge in profit and SK Hynix Inc. continued to lead in chip memory. In China, different industries continue to diverge as technology companies grow while consumption and property remain a drag. In response, China’s policymakers are evaluating various measures to support the housing market. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell sharply, and losses were led by the tech heavy Korean Kospi index where the aforementioned Korean companies posted steep declines.

Looking ahead, we remain cautious of the volatility in the markets. Due to concerns about inflated valuations for technology companies, the pullback observed in late November may have been a profit taking move or a price correction. Investors remain watchful for indicators of the widely discussed AI bubble, and signals for a potential burst. Against this landscape, we maintain a disciplined and balanced approach, grounded in bottom-up fundamental analysis in our portfolio construction.

Market Outlook - October 2025

Towards the end of September, in an effort to protect American jobs, the Trump administration made surprised changes to immigration visa laws that target foreign talent, particularly those working in the U.S. technology sector. Amongst the heaviest users of this targeted immigration visa scheme include Amazon.com Services LLC, Meta Platforms Inc, Apple Inc and Google LLC. Later that month, the U.S. Immigration Service issued guidance that included exceptions, thus stabilising concerns. However, the labour market outlook remains uncertain with the shutdown of the U.S. government, which began on October 1st. Consequently, data reports such as the official U.S. monthly jobs report and the labour-intensive Consumer Price Index report would likely be delayed amidst the impending mass firing and unpaid furlough of certain segments of federal workers. In China, September data showed low domestic demand, a continued property downturn and the weakest economic growth in a year. 

With the ongoing US-China trade war, Chinese regulators have urged against the use of Nvidia chips completely, stating that domestic chips are adequate in delivering comparable computing power. As such, Chinese domestic chipmakers have benefitted from efforts to become self-sufficient, and this move should serve as a catalyst to grow the technology sector.  

China tightened exports of rare earth where products that contain certain rare earths or traces of it sourced from China will now require an export license. With a 70% share of global supply, the supply crunch would be felt by the U.S. and Europe. In response, the U.S. imposed a 100% import surtax on Chinese goods effective November 1st, ahead of the 90-day tariff truce that was set to end on November 9th. Despite the trade war uncertainty, Chinese exports rebounded in September from a slump in August, beating estimates and increasing 8.3% year over year while imports grew 7.4%.  

The sweep of high tariffs from the U.S. have led China to seek imports from other avenues, such as Brazil and Argentina for soybean, which has caused farmers in the U.S. to scramble for buyers. On the other hand, aggressive price competition among manufacturers in China have led to what has been termed ‘Chinese dumping’, where low prices due to Chinese imports are alarming domestic producers in India, Africa and South-east Asia.  

Looking ahead, we remain cautiously optimistic of the global markets. In the U.S., businesses and households are concerned over trade tariffs, changes to immigration laws and the shutdown of the U.S. government. The structural imbalance in China represented by slow domestic growth and heavy reliance on export further weighs on global financial markets and investor confidence. Despite the uncertainty, there were reports of pockets of positive news. Alternative data in the U.S. such as restaurant bookings and theatre box office receipts reflects resilient consumer activity. The number of seated diners was up 9% from last year and domestic box office grossed 13% more than the previous month.

Market Outlook - September 2025

August began with higher reciprocal tariffs imposed by the U.S. on its trading partners. Notably, a 50% tariff on India that included a 25% penalty for purchasing Russian oil and weapons. Meanwhile, the U.S. and China extended a tariff truce for another 90 days to 10 November. Credit spreads narrowed further in August, indicating continued high investor risk appetite. Equity markets broadly advanced, reinforcing bullish sentiment amid strong earnings from technology driven firms. That said, investors are growing cautious about returns from technology and particularly, AI investments.

 Economic data indicated a struggling Chinese economy with low factory output, weak retail sales, troubled property sector and high unemployment. This raises the likelihood of policy support in the fourth quarter; economists suggest monetary easing and fiscal expansion. Despite underwhelming economic data, the Chinese stock market stands at a stark contrast to the economy with the Shanghai Composite Index at a 10-year high. Additionally, the government announced their aim to triple chip output in 2026. The reluctance of household spending is evident in the size of savings worth more than 60% of the total value of the Chinese stock markets, leading analysts to believe that the rally is supported by long-term and institutional investors. Key drivers include the strategic deployment of state funds, inflows from global institutional investors—such as major U.S. financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, as well as large Singapore-based funds—and increased participation by domestic mutual funds and insurers.

 Looking ahead, we remain cautiously optimistic. While trade frictions, sticky inflation, and geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on sentiment, global activity remains resilient. Primarily driven by technology companies’ robust earnings, U.S. equities performed well, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching record highs in August. Despite an initial pullback, markets have broadly rallied since, buoyed by expectations of two more rate cuts this year, moderating inflation, and resilient corporate earnings. Within Asia, institutional investors looking for diversification beyond U.S. assets are lured by China’s stock market bull run. Against this backdrop, we maintain a disciplined and balanced approach, grounded in bottom-up fundamental analysis in our portfolio construction.

Market Outlook - August 2025

Investors continue to watch closely for disinflationary indicators and the Fed's response. Despite macro uncertainties, the narrowing credit spread likely indicates the ongoing high investors' risk appetite. The strong earnings from AI-driven tech companies further supported investors' confidence, albeit after a slight June pullback. In Asia, the negative PPI in China reflects Chinese consumers becoming more price-sensitive and cutting back on non-essential spending. Sectors like electric vehicles ("EVs") and food delivery companies have slashed prices to stay competitive. The government launched an "anti-involution" campaign to combat the deepening price wars, and the initiatives such as pricing oversight have shown early signs of effectiveness. Despite this, the Chinese and Hong Kong equity markets have gained, with AI-linked firms and industrial-tech stocks driving market performance.

Looking ahead, we remain cautiously optimistic. Despite continued geopolitical tensions and macro uncertainties weighing on sentiment, resilient corporate earnings and tightening credit spreads would likely continue to support the global equity markets, notably in the AI and tech sectors. Meanwhile, we believe the Fed will remain cautious, closely watching sticky inflationary indicators; if inflation continues to ease, gradual rate cuts are likely. In spite of trade reroutes and structural market challenges leading to overcapacity, Asian equity markets performed better than expected, supported by a strengthened macro backdrop. Against this landscape, we maintain a disciplined and balanced approach, grounded in bottom-up fundamental analysis in our portfolio construction.

Market Outlook - July 2025

Since June, investor sentiment has gradually improved, supported by resilient corporate earnings, stronger-than-expected macroeconomic indicators, and measured progress in trade diplomacy. Despite lingering policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks, market conditions have remained relatively calm, with volatility largely contained.

Trade policy continues to be a central concern. The Trump administration’s 90-day pause on tariffs is set to expire on August 1, with proposed tariffs of up to 50% on autos and consumer electronics still under consideration. However, in spite of looming tariff risks, the successful negotiation of bilateral trade agreements - with Japan, the U.K., and South Korea - has helped bolster investor confidence. The U.S. - Japan deal, which includes a reported US$550 billion investment commitment, has further supported sentiments across Asian markets, which benefits from improved trade ties and regional policy coordination.

Meanwhile, the One Big Beautiful Bill (BBB Act), which offers generous tax incentives - including permanent R&D deductions and 100% expensing of production property - has provided notable support to the technology, semiconductor, and data center sectors. While the BBB Act raises concerns over fiscal deficits, it has already helped sustain momentum in pro-growth and AI-exposed equities.

In Asia, China’s Q2 GDP growth exceeded expectations, underpinned by strong industrial output and a rebound in exports, driven in part by front-loaded shipments ahead of potential new tariffs. However, weakness in retail sales and property investment underscores China’s continued reliance on external demand and industrial production over domestic consumption - raising expectations for further targeted fiscal support in the second half of 2025.

Looking ahead, we remain cautiously optimistic. While U.S. headline CPI rose in June, disinflationary trends are still evident in core components. Profitability remains strong in key sectors, and Asia continues to benefit from trade gains and pro-growth policies. However, with valuation multiples remaining elevated, the upcoming earnings season will play a pivotal role in supporting the valuation premium. With liquidity conditions stable and market volatility subdued, we maintain a disciplined and balanced approach, guided by bottom-up fundamental analysis in our portfolio construction.

Market Outlook - June 2025

Since May, markets have continued to operate in an environment marked by policy uncertainty and rising geopolitical risks. The Trump administration’s 90-day pause on “Liberation Day Tariffs” offered temporary relief, but limited progress in broader trade talks - especially with the EU and Japan - has kept investors cautious. While a limited agreement with the U.K. was reached, the overall trade landscape remains unresolved, affecting sentiment and weighing on risk appetite.

Geopolitical tensions escalated in June, particularly with the Israel-Iran conflict. Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz - a key route for around 20% of global oil supply - triggered a sharp rise in oil prices. This has increased concerns about supply disruptions, global shipping rerouting, and broader instability in the region. The timing of this conflict has added complexity to the inflation outlook. Central banks, including the Fed, were preparing for a potential shift toward easing. However, the surge in oil prices has introduced new uncertainty. In its June meeting, the Fed held rates steady and signalled only one possible cut for the rest of the year, citing persistent services inflation and elevated geopolitical risks. A prolonged conflict could keep oil prices elevated, which may delay or limit policy easing. Concerns over U.S. fiscal stability, driven by political gridlock and unresolved budget discussions, have added to the uncertainty.

Despite these challenges, we maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook. Disinflationary trends are taking hold, and market volatility has stayed relatively contained. With a potential easing in tariff tensions, expectations of reduced geopolitical friction, and supportive fiscal and probusiness policies in China and the U.S., global equities are expected to continue recovery. Against this backdrop, we maintain a disciplined and balanced approach, guided by bottom-up fundamental analysis in our portfolio construction.

Market Outlook - May 2025

Since May, markets have continued to operate in an environment marked by policy uncertainty and rising geopolitical risks. The Trump administration’s 90-day pause on “Liberation Day Tariffs” offered temporary relief, but limited progress in broader trade talks - especially with the EU and Japan - has kept investors cautious. While a limited agreement with the U.K. was reached, the overall trade landscape remains unresolved, affecting sentiment and weighing on risk appetite.

Geopolitical tensions escalated in June, particularly with the Israel-Iran conflict. Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz - a key route for around 20% of global oil supply - triggered a sharp rise in oil prices. This has increased concerns about supply disruptions, global shipping rerouting, and broader instability in the region. The timing of this conflict has added complexity to the inflation outlook. Central banks, including the Fed, were preparing for a potential shift toward easing. However, the surge in oil prices has introduced new uncertainty. In its June meeting, the Fed held rates steady and signalled only one possible cut for the rest of the year, citing persistent services inflation and elevated geopolitical risks. A prolonged conflict could keep oil prices elevated, which may delay or limit policy easing. Concerns over U.S. fiscal stability, driven by political gridlock and unresolved budget discussions, have added to the uncertainty.

Despite these challenges, we maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook. Disinflationary trends are taking hold, and market volatility has stayed relatively contained. With a potential easing in tariff tensions, expectations of reduced geopolitical friction, and supportive fiscal and probusiness policies in China and the U.S., global equities are expected to continue recovery. Against this backdrop, we maintain a disciplined and balanced approach, guided by bottom-up fundamental analysis in our portfolio construction.

Market Outlook - April 2025

US tariff announcements have introduced a wave of uncertainty into global markets. While the initial shock caused equities to retreat sharply, sentiment steadied somewhat after the US paused broad-based tariffs for most countries, leaving China as the primary target for higher levies. This erratic policy approach has unsettled businesses and investors alike, with US Treasury yields responding with unusual speed. We are keeping a close eye on trade negotiations, particularly those involving China, as their outcomes could significantly influence market direction in the coming months.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady comes amid mixed signals from the economy. Strong consumer spending and a resilient labour market suggest underlying strength, but inflationary pressures remain a persistent concern. Political calls for rate cuts have added to the noise, yet the Fed’s next steps remain uncertain. For now, we are watching closely to see how these dynamics unfold, as the interplay between economic data and policy decisions will be critical in shaping the path ahead. 

In China, the investment climate remains somewhat cloudy amid ongoing tensions with the US. While fiscal stimulus measures announced during the Two Sessions meeting provide some support, including efforts to boost consumption and bolster key industries, we believe there is scope for further measures in the coming months.

Market Outlook - March 2025

The conclusion of China’s Two Sessions has injected optimism into the Chinese and Hong Kong markets. Key policy measures include maintaining a 5% growth target and increasing deficit spending to 4% of GDP. Beijing has also pledged greater support for the private sector and cutting-edge technologies. Investors’ reaction to these announcements have been positive so far as the government is shifting priority to restoring the private sector and help drive economic growth. In our view, this positive momentum is still in its early stages, given how negative global sentiment towards China has been over recent years.

US-led trade tariff hikes have introduced significant political and economic uncertainty, primarily through passing higher costs for consumers and businesses, alongside the threat of retaliatory measures from trading partners. This has contributed to market instability and has dampened business optimism. We are cautious about trade-related developments due to their potential impact on global supply chains. However, we believe it is too early to make significant portfolio adjustments, as supply chains have historically demonstrated resilience to changing conditions.

US consumer sentiment has dropped suddenly as rising inflation expectations weigh on confidence. Consumers are growing more cautious with spending, fearing a decline in purchasing power. This hesitation is reinforced by slowing economic indicators such as retail sales. A closer look at the data reveals a significant decline in sales at food service establishments, which could signal weakening consumer demand. We will closely monitor whether this is a temporary fluctuation or the beginning of a broader negative trend.

At this time, we are still comfortable with our risk positioning, which remains well-diversified across various sectors and regions.

Market Outlook - February 2025

The launch of Deepseek marks a notable development for China as the startup claims it is significantly more efficient than widespread models developed by US companies. The startup also claims to have developed the model with only US$ 6 million and has made their model publicly available for use globally. This stands in contrast to US technology firms, which have been spending billions of dollars. Additionally, the availability of Deepseek’s model has raised concerns about potential reductions in AI infrastructure investment. Our view is that these investments will continue since the US sees AI as a national security issue and will continue to advance their own AI models.

The rise of Deepseek has also brought investor attention back to Chinese technology firms with their share prices rebounding strongly. Despite the meteoric rise, valuations are still at reasonable levels though we do expect profit-taking along the way given the recent sharp rise. We believe the positive shift in China’s stock market is at its early innings given how negative global investors have been on China over the past few years. We will be closely monitoring the outlook from major Chinese technology companies in their coming earnings results, along with key political events such as the upcoming Chinese government’s Two Sessions. These developments could further bolster investors interest in China.

So far, earnings results from most US technology firms that we monitor were only marginally disappointing, yet significant price corrections have followed. We see this as a result of high analyst expectations and stretched valuations, which have amplified volatility even on minor earnings misses. That said, market sentiment remains positive, and with no signs of a recession, we will continue to maintain our positions.

Market Outlook - January 2025

In our previous update, we briefly shared our outlook for 2025, and we maintain our view that market risks will be driven by three key factors: the uncertain interest rate trajectory in the US, elevated US equity valuations in the sectors that we monitor and heightened geopolitical risks globally. These factors are likely to result in higher volatility in equity markets compared to recent years. However, this does not mean that equity prices will drop precipitously. Instead, we simply believe a more cautious approach to positioning and stock picking is warranted.

The US equity market has benefited from the strength in its economy and leading position in artificial intelligence (“AI”) technologies. This has led to high earnings expectations being baked into stock valuations, which we find to be optimistic given the looming risk of tariffs and the ongoing cooling of the general economy. Some argue that the Trump administration will reduce corporate taxes to boost earnings and control interest rates despite inflation risks. Our view is that timing all these initiatives to benefit the US economy will be challenging and there will likely be knee-jerk reactions to any significant policy announcements, earnings misses and economic data surprises.

For ASEAN countries, while the “China + 1” narrative is beneficial, they may not be spared from US tariffs as Trump announced his attention to impose tariffs on close allies such as the EU and Canada. Additionally, recent US technology export regulations were tightened, and none of the ASEAN countries were included in the list of “US allies” who were granted unrestricted access to advanced semiconductors.

In other developed markets such as major EU countries and Japan, we believe that their economies are still struggling to pick-up meaningfully. Coupled with the ongoing geopolitical environment, we will continue to be selective in increasing exposure to these regions.

Among the countries we monitor, we believe that China could be a bright spot in 2025, provided the administration acts strongly and decisively. They have announced ambitious goals to stimulate the economy with no concrete actions yet, in our view. We will be monitoring their key policy meetings for actionable plans before significantly increasing our weighting in the region.

Market Outlook - December 2024

Recently, China has expressed increasing urgency to stabilise its property market and domestic consumption, through stronger-than-usual language from the administration. Given that these were mostly high-level statements, we remain skeptical on the announcement given the Chinese government’s hesitance to implement substantial economic stimulus in recent years.

In the US, we also see that there has been growing interest in value stocks, as investors seek opportunities in undervalued companies amid concentrated gains in companies like the Magnificent Seven. At current valuations, Goldman Sachs has forecasted that the broader  S&P500 index will return a mere 3% annually over the next 10 years. We will however remain focused and selective on US opportunities - buying on dips, looking at undervalued stocks or even going into smaller capitalization companies if they have differentiated business models or products. We believe this approach is more sensible under the current conditions of uncertainty in both the global economy and geopolitics heading into 2025.

Market Outlook - November 2024

The Chinese administration have announced their intention to rollout an additional RMB 6 trillion package to support the debt burden of local governments and China’s finance minister also gave forward guidance that they would be introducing new measures to further stabilise the property market. While the headline number of RMB 6 trillion seems substantial, ultimately it was not impressive as the debt swap is intended to occur gradually over the next 3 years. Furthermore, there is uncertainty over how the local governments will spur their respective economies once their debt position improves. A positive note is that there has been some initial rebound in property sales. However, we believe near-term equity valuations in China are likely to remain rangebound until further stimulus measures are announced given the modest earnings results so far.

In the US, the presidential election results was a red sweep, where the Republican party took control of the House and Senate. This shift is expected to lead to more decisive policy action going forward which would be beneficial for domestic US companies. Nevertheless, President Donald Trump’s erratic nature may cause bouts of market volatility despite the anticipated policy clarity.

Going forward into 2025, we remain constructive on technology companies. With overall valuation levels in this space remaining high and economic growth still normalising, we shall selectively initiate new positions. We note that equity markets have been exhibiting high amounts of volatility on surprising economic data or slight earnings misses. We believe this is due to the high valuations observed in the broad equity market. Though disappointing earnings results may signal the start of a deterioration in business performance, we tend to see that most of these reactions are overblown over a long-term horizon. This presenting attractive buying opportunities.

Market Outlook - October 2024

Since the initial surge in the Hong Kong and Chinese stock market, significant profit taking has followed. Despite this, we maintain our view that company valuations in the region remains attractive. The main event that we are monitoring is towards the end of this month, where China holds their Politburo Standing Committee. We expect major stimulus measures to be announced given the state of their economy, and this should result in a positive impact to stock valuations. In the absence of strong stimulus measures, we will be reassessing our view on the region.

We remain confident that investments in artificial intelligence (“AI”) applications will remain strong through 2025, driven by the industry's continued high-growth potential. While sales momentum has moderated, we believe this cycle has several more quarters of growth ahead. As a result, we believe that modest selloffs in the US technology sector are potentially attractive entry points.

Market Outlook - September 2024

Since the last newsletter, technology stocks continued to underperform as investors began to question the premium valuations that these companies command since the start of the artificial intelligence (“AI”) narrative. There is no doubt that AI will result in long-term productivity gains as more companies begin to announce standalone AI products. Additionally, continued improvements in AI hardware will likely accelerate development going forward.

As we assess the current investment landscape, we anticipate the road forward for AI-related opportunities to be less smooth than the past year as investors increasingly scrutinise the potential for these AI investments and applications to deliver solid returns.

We believe that the first to see widespread AI adoption would be in areas that provide support in pattern recognition and personal assistance. These applications, while not entirely new, have progressed significantly over the past year. To illustrate, Salesforce has recently announced Agentforce, a client servicing bot that is easily customisable for different industry applications. Compared to older chatbots, early adopters of Agentforce have seen a 40% improvement in customer query resolution. In healthcare, doctors are also increasingly using AI to assist with effective diagnosis and drug development. We are well positioned to benefit from increasing AI adoption over the long-term on this front.

Where we are looking to gain additional exposure is in AI-related hardware. We are tracking several data center equipment and power management companies. However, these sectors in general are trading at a high premium and are already well-invested. We believe we should take a more considered approach prior to initiating a significant position given the high valuations.

The AI landscape is undoubtedly changing very quickly, and we will be flexible on our positions depending on the developments that unfold going forward.

Market Outlook - August 2024

Early in August, equity markets experienced a sudden spike in volatility, where volatility reached levels unseen since the COVID-19 crash. This was caused by a significant unwinding of the Yen carry trade. The unwinding was triggered after the Bank of Japan (“BOJ”) unexpectedly raised interest rates, where a sharp appreciation in the Japanese Yen followed. Traders who borrowed Yen cheaply then had to sell off their investments to pay back their borrowings. The situation worsened when weaker-than-expected US employment data caused the greenback to depreciate further against the Yen. Shortly after the sharp market decline, the BOJ has given comfort to the public that they will not hike interest rates further while financial markets are unstable. Thus, we are of the opinion that as of now, the carry trade should not cause further volatility.

We are cautiously optimistic about the market consolidation. The reason for the caution is due to the still high valuation of the broad US equity market despite increasingly slowing fundamentals and economic data. We will continue to watch near-term trends given that a broad recovery in equity markets normally results in bullish short-term sentiment.

Market Outlook - July 2024

China’s economy continues to be supported by their manufacturing industry, while consumer spending remains tepid. Growth in retail sales continue to disappoint, and their recent Q2 Growth Domestic Product (“GDP”) reading saw a deceleration in growth, posting just 4.7% growth year-on-year. In the property sector, there are positive signs that the homebuying easing measures have supported property sales as secondary property sales in tier-one cities jumped double digits. While we are encouraged by this early data point, we need more evidence to be convinced given that we have observed a short-lived rise in home sales when homebuying restrictions was eased significantly in 2023. Additionally, we will also be monitoring the outcome of the Third Plenum to understand the broad policies shaping the Chinese economy going forward.

While we maintain our modest concerns over the medium-term outlook on the US economy, the deceleration in growth and unemployment trends have yet to catch the attention of investors due to strong AI-related investments. Over the longer-term, we are assured that fiscal dominance will be prevalent as the US’ Congressional Budget Office projects that debt-to-GDP levels will increase from around 120% today to 200% over the next 30 years. This frequently raises concerns on the sustainability of the US economy. Our take is that the current status quo could last much longer than anticipated. Moreover, aggressive attempts to time market peaks normally results in large opportunity costs. Hence, we will continue to invest in US firms while being cognizant of potential de-dollarization and debt risks over the long run.

Following the Fed's testimony on their readiness to lower interest rates and market expectations of a Donald Trump victory in the presidential election, there has been a sudden rotation into smaller capitalization stocks, which have underperformed the Standard & Poor’s 500 since COVID heavily affected these businesses. The market is likely anticipating a “no landing” scenario, as small businesses typically benefit more from lower borrowing costs and fiscal spending compared to larger firms. We remain wary of smaller firms that are significantly exposed to debt due to our concerns about slowing end-demand globally.