The hawkish rate cut signalled the Fed’s caution, even as tariff-related inflation pressures appeared to be fading. November’s jobs report suggested a subdued consumer environment. Unemployment had risen to its highest level since 2021, and retail sales remained unchanged despite Black Friday sales. Though the Trump administration has softened its language on China, recent developments highlight the delicate truce in their trade war. The U.S. has restricted China’s access to technology, such as permitting limited Nvidia chip exports, and formed an international partnership to counter China’s rare earth dominance.
Across Asia, the picture remains mixed. The weaker U.S. dollar alleviates pressure on currency weakness in countries like Indonesia, South Korea, India, and the Philippines. The Bank of Japan have responded to the Fed’s rate cut by raising interest rates by a quarter point in a widely expected decision. In China, the economy continues to be supported by sustained capital inflows and the boom in exports while pivoting away from dependence on U.S. consumers. This was in spite of the property sector slump, missed industrial production expectations, weak retail sales, and unchanging unemployment rates. Measures to drive consumption appear ineffective, and rising trade frictions with countries beyond the U.S are weighing on sentiment.
Investors are increasingly watchful for signs of an AI-driven bubble, including circular financing risks inflating valuations, where such dynamics could unwind abruptly. Against this backdrop, investors face a strategic dilemma - rein in AI exposure ahead of a potential bubble popping, or double down to capitalise on game-changing technology breakthroughs. In response, we are positioning portfolios defensively and broadening exposure to other sectors. This includes increasing allocations to commodities such as silver and gold, which can serve as stores of value, and consumer staples, that tends to offer more resilient demand. We continue to maintain a disciplined, bottom-up fundamental approach in portfolio construction.